This is a short course in forecasting methodologies and their applications in business. This course will cover traditional forecasting methodologies along with an overview of the state-of-the-art of forecasting with methodologies ranging from judgmental to statistical knowledge sources.
Forecasting should not be confused with planning. The former is about what the future will be, while the latter deals with what the future should be. Most statistical packages (e.g., Statgraphics, SPSS, SAS) have some modules to do forecasting, but the user needs to know the principles of the models to use them. Dedicated forecasting packages provide some advice to the user about the forecasting method they should use (e.g., ForecastX, Forecast Pro). This course will focus on forecasting methodologies using statistical knowledge. By the end of the course students should know how to collect data and analyze them with a suitable computer program, and ultimately generate forecasts by selecting and fitting an appropriate model. We will also discuss some of the managerial issues surrounding the use of forecasting models in business.
The student will select an area of interest (e.g., finance, marketing, operations, accounting, general planning) within which he/she would like to apply and some of the forecasting methodologies we study, and develop a forecasting model.
Prerequisites: BQOM 2401 Statistical Analysis.